How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion by David McRaney

 This is another "I found it randomly in the library" book, picked up because I saw it on the shelf while I was looking for something else. Unlike Orlanda, this didn't turn out to be something I was really glad I'd found, but I still learned something from the book.

So, we live in a polarized 'post-fact' world, where at least online there is no agreed baseline set of facts and we all belong to subgroups where 'the truth' is obvious and all outsiders are clearly misguided fools. It can seem impossible or futile to speak to those who do not share our beliefs because it seems impossible to persuade others that even the most ridiculous ideas are wrong. (Flat earthers anyone?)

Do we all give up? Are facts useless? Persuasion impossible?

This book draws upon a variety of sociological, psychological, and political research to argue that not only is persuasion possible, it is foundational to human societies. It then goes on to provide some "how to" recipes.

What did I think? Well, I'm not convinced by some of the research that the author quotes (for example, McRaney refers to some 1950s/60s studies that I think may have been debunked, based on other reading I've done). And as many of the StoryGraph reviews mention, the book itself sometimes feels a bit repetitive, and the arguments overdrawn. But I did draw a few insights that I'll carry with me:

• People are tribal. Asking folks to change what they believe can be the same as asking them to change which group they identify with, and therefore fundamentally asking them to change who they believe they are. (It's shameful that issues like climate change have been 'politicized' in this way by evil assholes, but here we are.)
• "Facts don't matter" in a discussion of this nature, because which facts are relevant or important to a speaker depends on what they value, how they feel about an issue, and which community they feel they belong to. (Facts matter to those of a scientific/technical bent, because adherence to facts is a key principle of belonging to a scientificly/technically literate community).
• People can and do change their minds, even about fundamental issues, sometimes apparently very quickly. For example, remember how quickly North American society switched to supporting gay marriage (polls within a 5 year span changed from 70% against to 70+% in favour).
• You can't change someone's mind, but you can have a discussion that prompts people to change their own minds.  Productive conversations focus on discussing the process of how people have come to have a belief, not the supporting evidence for the belief.
• Why do you want to change someone's mind? Ask yourself that question before proceeding.

McRaney provides a number of templates for how to have persuasive conversations, based on the work of several different organizations/people who independently developed similar techniques. In practise, using these techniques effectively requires empathy, curiosity, and a lot of practise and feedback. So fear not! You will not have your mind changed by reading this blog entry.

Here's one example of a template, based on the work of a Californian organization that does "deep canvassing" in support of ballot initiatives for LGBTQ+ rights:

1. Establish rapport: Your intention is to explore their reasoning, not to shame them for their beliefs. Ask their consent for the conversation.
2. Ask how strongly they feel about their belief on a scale of 1 to 10.
3. Share a story about someone (perhaps yourself) who is affected by the issue. Ask if that changes the 'number' for that person. If the number changes, ask why.
4. "Why does that number feel right to you?" Explore how and why the person has their level of certainty. Ask questions. 
5. Once they have summarized their reasons, repeat their conclusions back to them until they agree that you have summarized accurately.
6. Ask if there was a time in their life before they felt this way, and if so, what led them to their current attitude.
7. Listen, summarize, repeat.
8. Briefly share your personal story of how you reached your position, but do not argue.
9. Ask for their rating a final time, wrap up, thank them for their time and wish them well.

The key part of all of these techniques is getting the person you are speaking with to reflect on why they hold the position that they do, and why they have the level of certainty that they claim. Other templates prompt questioners to ask "why not a 1?" or  "why not a 10?" "Have you always been a 9 on this issue? When or how did you come to that conclusion?" What information would have to change for you to be a 1/10?" "Why do you think that someone with the same information you have might draw a different conclusion?"    

In other words, we all have a variety of beliefs on a variety of subjects, some of which we hold strongly, and some of which we have never examined carefully. By careful and empathetic questioning, we can prompt others to examine their own beliefs, and sometimes, change their own minds.  Not necessarily immediately and not necessarily 180 degrees, but in real and significant ways.

Which is an encouraging idea in a discouraging world.